Tour de France 2024: Stage Profiles and What to Look Out For
My new obsession inevitably leads me to use data to find insights
The biggest cycling race in the world, Le Tour de France, is starting tomorrow. The 21-stage race is a grueling journey that involves climbing up mountains, explosive sprints, time trials, riding on gravel, and more.
“The Tour” starts tomorrow, for the first time in Italy with many storylines on offer:
- Tadej Pogacar, the Giro d’Italia winner, may become the first cyclist to win the Giro and the Tour in the same year since 1998.
- Mark Cavendish may break the record for most Tour stage wins
- The general classification has four very strong riders, this year, so the battle between Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic, and Remco Evenepoel will be intense
- Stage 9 is the biggest use of gravel in the Tour to date and could be a perfect breakaway day for the current world champion, Mathieu Van Der Poel
I am clearly excited for the Tour because cycling has turned into my newest obsession after starting as a hobby to help me battle my arthritis. So, in honour of my new obsession, I wanted to make a viz of the famous cycling race.
Below are the profiles of all the Tour de France stages. For those of you who don’t know, a stage profile shows the relative altitude of the day’s route. So the bigger the peak, the higher the mountain.
You can see the viz on tableau public here.
I’ll be using this Tour de France as an opportunity to analyze some performances, where they made the difference, and how incredible these cyclists are. I’m watching out for a few things in the coming month:
1) Every route and stage profile will suit someone. It may not be the best cyclist in the world - but it will suit someone. I’ve already mentioned Stage 9 and how it’d suit Van Der Poel, my favourite rider. Meanwhile, a stage like 4 or 20, will suit Vingegaard (in my opinion) because he’s suited to longer climbs that aren’t as punchy
2) In the grand scheme of things, segments make the difference. Generally speaking, I’ve noticed that riders attack in certain parts of the course to create the distance and hopefully sustain it. Pogacar in Strade Bianche attacked with 81km to go and won by around 2 minutes and 30 seconds
3) Tied to 1 and 2, what makes a rider different from another (or their strength) is the amount of power they can output over a given period of time. For example, Jasper Philipsen can output incredible power over 30s, hence why he’s a sprinter. Richard Carapaz, among others, can output a high amount of power anywhere from 20 to 45 minutes AND have a high power-to-weight ratio (essentially gravity is your biggest obstacle when climbing so it’s great to weigh next to nothing…which is why I suck at climbing), hence why he’s a climber. Remco Evenepoel can output a high amount of power over an hour, which is why he’s the world time trial champion.
All this to say, begs the question during a race: can the rider who’s attacking now sustain a level to maintain that lead until the end? For example, I could attack with 20km to go, get a 2-minute lead, but be gassed and the rest of the peloton catch me in the last kilometre or earlier.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on these three things and frame my analyses and data vizzes around these ideas. Stay tuned!
This year’s tour will be an incredible race with plenty of things to watch out for. Each stage will have a different profile and story which will benefit different riders. I encourage you to find the stages that catch your eye from my viz so you can tune in to enjoy.
Thank you et merci, tout le monde!